Military Strategy and Balloons

There are many strategies in war, but some work regardless of the opponent -- or their technological capabilities.

Years ago I read about how during the cold war Russian soldiers were trained to carry out missions nearly entirely based on time. I can’t find any of this information now because an Internet search will only bring up the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The reason Russia went with this type of strategy was simple. Both the US and Russia could monitor radio frequencies and intercept communications, otherwise making ground forces vulnerable. The US, long ago, had the ability to decrypt digital encrypted communications in almost real time. Also, any transmissions sent would be scrutinized. Those transmissions, even if not decoded, could still be recognized and used for a counteroffensive. This meant that there was no “safe” way to communicate with ground forces once they were in the field. So, timing was determined to be the best way.

Russian soldiers were to go out, and perform various parts of their mission at precise time windows, to avoid the need for communications. This was a rather brilliant plan. Of course, a lot could go wrong, but a lot could go right. Also, there was little chance that the opponent would know what you’re planning, because everything just “happens.” This puts the opponent on a reactive footing for nearly the entire operation.

This brings us to the balloon issue. We know that the first balloon that made it into the news was rather large, and had a huge array of instruments suspended from it. Whatever it was sent here to do, it was not disguised, and there was no attempt to hide it. So, why was it here?

The answer to that question would require honest military leaders, which we are sadly short on these days. There are a few different hypotheses for this event. I will list a few possibilities that I have considered.

After reading a rather interesting Substack post, the payload came into question. Of course the last balloon that was shot down had “strings hanging from it” according to one of the F-16 pilots. The writer pointed out that during the Vietnam war, the US put seismic sensors all along the Ho Chi Minh trail. This alerted the US military as to when the Viet Cong were moving supplies by truck, and could send in an air strike to maximize their effectiveness. These devices were not transmitting unless there was enough seismic activity, so they were largely undetectable. So, where did the balloon's payload go?

CBS ran a story on this very issue, apparently nobody knows.

“Assistant Secretary of Defense Melissa Dalton said in a briefing with reporters on Sunday that the U.S. has been more closely scrutinizing airspace at certain altitudes, including enhancing the radar.

“The unidentified object that was downed near Alaska was the size of a small car, according to the Pentagon. The object shot down over Lake Huron appeared to be octagonal in shape with strings hanging off, but no discernible payload, a senior administration official said.”

The first balloon was very obvious, the balloons that followed were much smaller and harder to detect. But they were able to make it over US territory. Why? Well there are a few reasons for that. Active surveillance is the reason that most people are stating. It was said that the US military made sure the first balloon wasn’t transmitting data. Which really means, it wasn’t transmitting data. So, what was it doing.

I have a few theories on this. Let’s incorporate the payload, and time aspect into this. Let’s assume that China is going to invade Taiwan, everyone thinks that this is going to happen at some point. The question is when? Now how could these balloons help the Chinese war effort? The balloons can deploy small units on the ground (their payloads). These units that can determine what’s going on around US military installations, or anywhere else that they drifted over.

These units don’t need to broadcast continually, perhaps only once initially. They can send one broadcast to transmit their relative location (using US GPS coordinates) then wait. China knows when it’s going to invade Taiwan, they can have these units sleep until they begin military operations. Using this method, the devices will remain undetectable because they won’t be emitting any radio signals, just sitting on the ground and charging batteries with non-reflective solar cells, awaiting either a wake-up command, or a timer will activate them.

When the US decides to launch missiles, B-52 aircraft, or any other defensive measure, the Chinese will know ahead of time what’s coming, where it's coming from, and when it took off.

I’m not a military expert, but I can see how this might be used in an offensive manor, I’m sure I’m not the only person on the planet that believes this is possible, but for some reason, nobody within the US government is talking about any of this. At this point it would make sense for people in the surrounding states to look around in remote areas to see if they can spot something! Remember, we wouldn’t even have known about the first balloon if it wasn’t for regular citizens paying attention.

Note: You DO NOT need to register to leave a comment. Email addresses are NOT used. Just make one up "someone@somehost.com"

The QR code below links to WindUpRubberFinger.com for easy sharing.