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UPDATE: Why Are The COVID-19 Models So Far From Reality?

Permalink 04/16/20 18:03, by OGRE / (Jeff), Categories: News, Background, In real life, On the web, Politics, Health Care, Strange_News, U.S. Economy

Science, like any industry, is money driven. A lot of scientists want to be the "first" to publish something. This leads to a lot of shoddy work, and ridiculous conclusions. A perfect example is eggs. Remember about 20 years ago they had all of those articles that said eggs were high in cholesterol and bad for you based on "first of it's kind" research. Then about 5 years later there was followup research that completely disproved the previous research. Now we know that eggs are great for you and are full of everything the human body needs.

I believe the same thing happened with the models for the COVID-19 virus. The early models were wildly inaccurate, but they made the headlines didn't they? Once the statistician who pumped out these numbers received recognition, they'll be sure receive funding. Never mind that their models are deeply flawed. These inaccuracies can usually be explained away in another 5 years, after most people have forgotten about the original research. But these models are being challenged in a very short amount of time and this time with the actual raw data. The COVID-19 outbreak is exposing a serious moral hazard in the scientific community, money, not science.

One Israeli professor eludes to this here.

While the American policies remain less restrictive than those of Israel, it is important to understand the origins of our own “mass hysteria” response. President Trump urged a strong coronavirus response after consulting with Dr. Fauci and his team, who relied on a British model predicting 2.2 million deaths in the United States and 500,000 deaths in the U.K. But that model was developed by Professor Neil Ferguson, who had a history of wildly overestimating death rates through his prediction models. Professor Ferguson was not known for his reliability, and his 2001 disease model was criticized as “not fit for purpose” after it predicted that up to 150,000 people could die in the U.K. from mad cow disease (177 deaths to date). Ferguson’s U.K. coronavirus deaths prediction is now down to 20,000 people, 4% of the original prediction.

Professor Neil Ferguson has a history of being wildly inaccurate. But he was definitely good at getting published because of his sensationalism! I'm sure you guys remember Mad Cow Disease, there was a big scare about that as well. Nobody remembers the wild numbers that Ferguson put out there. That's how these people normally get away with these totally ridiculous predictions. The numbers are so wildly inaccurate, you could have just made them up and been closer.

Now we have official government policy based on these ridiculous numbers. We have caused years worth of damage to the US economy for nothing. The article referenced above explains how the virus has run almost the exact same course in each of the countries it has impacted --regardless of the measures used to mitigate the response. Yitzhak Ben Israel has no answer for how the virus curves have been so similar. But I do, I think COVID-19 has been here since at least October of last year. Mitigation efforts will have little effect if the virus has already spread all over the country --while nobody was looking for it! That's why I think the curves are so similar. The virus had already spread all over the world before anyone started testing for it.

UPDATE:

At least one person agrees with my reasoning, Dr. Luc Montagnier.

We knew that the Chinese version of how the coronavirus emerged was increasingly under attack, but here’s a thesis that tells a completely different story about the Covid-19 pandemic, which is already responsible for more than 110,000 deaths worldwide. According to Professor Luc Montagnier, winner of the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 2008 for “discovering” HIV as the cause of the AIDS epidemic together with Françoise Barré-Sinoussi, the SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that was manipulated and accidentally released from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, in the last quarter of 2019. According to Professor Montagnier, this laboratory, known for its work on coronaviruses, tried to use one of these viruses as a vector for HIV in the search for an AIDS vaccine!

In a challenging question Dr Jean-François Lemoine inferred that the coronavirus under investigation may have come from a patient who is otherwise infected with HIV. No, “says Luc Montagnier,” in order to insert an HIV sequence into this genome, molecular tools are needed, and that can only be done in a laboratory.

According to the 2008 Nobel Prize for Medicine, a plausible explanation would be an accident in the Wuhan laboratory. He also added that the purpose of this work was the search for an AIDS vaccine.

This makes sense. The number of people who are infected with COVID-19 doesn't add up with the virus getting here in January or February 2020.

Consider this. When you look at the numbers of people who contract COVID-19 those who have severe symptoms are a small percentage. Of those people with severe symptoms, the number of people that actually require hospitalization is even lower. It appears that COVID-19 could have been released accidentally from the Chinese lab in Wuhan. This could have happened without anyone knowing until so many people were infected that the number of people with severe symptoms requiring hospitalization became noticeably high. Otherwise, like the rest of the world, the Chinese would just assume it was another bad flu season.

More evidence to support my conclusion.

Pay attention to the "cases and deaths per 100,000 people."

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