Oil: The Original Renewable Resource

This is an essay I did for my college English class on July 28, 2015. I hope you find it interesting.

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    Oil is first and foremost for many of the world’s economies. Oil, in some form or another, is a necessity required to sustain the global economy. Because of oil’s global demand; opinions of its use and extraction are constantly up for debate. With the combination of political and environmental literature on the subject; oil is most often shrouded in confusion. It’s hard to sort fact from fiction when it comes to the specifics about oil, its formation, production, and how much might be remaining in the world. Oil is naturally produced in ways that we don’t fully understand and found in places where it was assumed it wouldn’t be—we may never run out.

    Much less is known about the natural formation of oil than most would expect. Because the process takes place over an extended period of time, there is still speculation as to exactly how oil is formed. Trask explains this well in his 1937 article “Where Does Oil Come From?”

Three things are necessary in order for an oil pool to form. First, there must be something present—source beds—to make the oil. Second, there must be some sort of container—reservoir—to hold the oil after it has been generated. Third there has to be a trap—structure—to prevent the oil from escaping, once it has been collected in the reservoir. (Trask 378)

    Trask goes on to explain how oil almost always forms around areas where rivers deposit silt into the ocean, or around lagoons. When it comes to assuming the time for oil formation, opinions vary from a few thousand years, to over one million years. The science of oil formation is still not completely settled.

    There are many methods by which oil is extracted. The vast majority of oil is pumped, but there are other ways to get petroleum up from the depths. In practice, the extent and properties of each reservoir (the “building blocks” of an oil field) are determined initially through the discovery well and subsequent appraisal wells, in addition to seismic results, which yield a range of values for porosity, permeability, volume, fluid saturations and other parameters (Pike 150). Drilling is necessary in the vast majority of oil discoveries because it’s very rare that oil finds its way to the surface under natural circumstances. The involvement of drilling drives the cost of oil discovery higher than one might expect. There is a lot of man hours and equipment required just to verify the existence of oil in a given area. Hydraulic fracturing, or Fracking, is another method by which oil is extracted from rock beds. Fracking is most often used in conjunction with horizontal drilling. Drilling at extreme angles makes breaking through tough rock nearly impossible. Hydraulic fracturing presents a method for breaking through the harder rock, allowing the oil or natural gas to rise so it can be extracted. Typically when the fracking fluid, usually water, is injected it is mixed with sand or aluminum oxide. These small granules hold the cracks open allowing the oil, or natural gas to escape. Fracking is a noisy and inefficient way to extract oil and natural gas, until more recently.

A well-driller, U.S. Well Services LLC, has developed cleaner technology to power fracking rigs. The company based in Houston, claims its patented Clean Fleet Technology, has already decreased emissions by 99 percent. significantly reduced noise pollution, and saved operational costs of $40,000 per day at sites in West Virgina. (Kosowatz 12)

U.S. Well Services LLC, has made simple improvements by using the natural gas extracted from the site to run turbine generators for power at the site. Previously fracking rigs used large diesel generators to power the equipment which was loud, and required massive amounts of fuel to be delivered to the site on a daily basis. Once oil is extracted it must be moved, or pumped from one place to another. Sometimes the oil is shipped by rail, but this is expensive and increases the risk of a massive oil spill. The best alternative is to ship the oil by pipeline, but sometimes there are drawbacks to this method, most notably political drawbacks. Take oil coming from the Caspian region for example. There are vast quantities of oil there, but getting it to port is quite a task. The most direct route to open sea and the one desired by the Caspian countries, is through Iran to the Persian Gulf. But the United States opposes that route because it would defy U.S. Sanctions against Iran and make Caspian oil hostage to political instability in the gulf (Cooper 690). Regardless of the extraction method, portability of product must always be considered.

    There are many different types of oil and natural gas. Both oil and gas are divided into classes based on their chemical composition and composition of their source materials. In China there is concern about the types of natural gases that are available in some areas. The type of oil or gas available is important when cost of extraction is considered. Because different genetic types of shallow-buried gases have different accumulation processes, identifying the genetic types is significant for understanding the gas accumulation (Gao 347). The process by which oil is produced is called Catagenesis. Knowing at what point in the Catagenesis process the oil, gas, or coal is can greatly help in determining the quantity and quality of the substance to be extracted. In the quote below; OM refers to (Organic Matter).

Biochemical and physicochemical transformation of OM was accompanied by various (so far insufficiently studied) processes of its decomposition and synthesis. All these processes promoted the formation of diverse and intricate (in composition and structure) coals that are mined and utilized nowadays. Different combinations of paleogeographic and tectonic factors were responsible for the formation of giant coal basins and numerous different-scale deposits. (Korolev 515)

    These technologies can be used to determine the type of substance and determine at what point in the process it is believed to be. Taking into consideration the types of oil, gas, and coal available, there are also concerns about the supply.

The world's supply of "conventional" oil -- oil that is easily recovered -- is running short of demand. In little more than a decade, some experts predict, global demand will so far exceed supplies of conventional oil that price shocks will occur that may lead to recession or political turmoil. (Cooper 685)

    Of course this is in stark contrast to how another researcher sees this issue. Richard Pike, the former Chief Executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry in the UK, has a much different view. Oil reserves are calculated based on the minimum probability for extraction or P90. This is mostly because of market forces. Investors feel safer when they are going after “proven” reserves. Pike illustrates the error.

Consolidating to the company level is almost always arithmetical, and this is considered acceptable by the financial markets because its principal purpose is to provide a conservative estimate for reserves, that gives investors a high degree of confidence of being recovered. This form of aggregation continues to the country and world level. This is equivalent to assuming that the outcome, simultaneously, of every field in the world will be its “downside”, with no scope for “upside” beyond the P90 threshold. (Pike 2)

    Interestingly, Pike uses dice as an example on how the method used to calculate oil reserves is fundamentally flawed. For this example the 1 on the die represents the P90 threshold for oil reserves. He explains that, with one die, the probability of rolling a number higher than 1 is 5 out of 6. When you have more dice in the picture, the odds are largely in your favor of rolling much higher numbers. Of course it is possible that you could roll 1 on all of the dice, but that is an extremely low probability. The chances are much greater that you will end up with considerably higher numbers.

    Still if there is an issue with supply, there are artificial methods for producing oil. While these methods are in their infancy, some of them show great hope for solving at least some of the oil supply problem if that ever becomes a reality. Oil has been produced using algae in just a very short period of time; however, research into yeast as an oil producing organic option shows even more promise.

Microorganisms that could accumulate lipids at more than 20% of their biomass were named as oleaginous species [1]. Some yeast strains, such as Lipomyces sp., Rhodosporidium sp., and Rhodotorula sp. could accumulate intracellular lipids as high as 70% of dry weight of their biomass [2, 3]. The majority of those lipids were triacylglycerides with long-chain fatty acids that were comparable to conventional vegetable oils [4]. Microbial lipids have been recently considered as potential feedstock for the production of biodiesel [5–8]. Our early work demonstrated that oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides Y4 produced notable quantity of intracellular lipid when cultivated in nitrogen-limited media with glucose as the sole substrate [9]. (Zhou 119-120)

This is amazing because it means that with only water and glucose the yeast were able to generate considerable energy from the fats that they accumulate. This is also notable because even though glucose would most likely come from some type of crop, it doesn’t have to be a crop that requires large amounts of energy to harvest. That was the largest problem for alcohol as a petroleum based fuel alternative. Alcohol is a terrible competitor to oil, coal, or natural gas because it requires more energy to produce it than you get when you burn the alcohol.

    While some are worried about running out of oil, some are worried that we will destroy the planet by using too much oil. Futurist Brenda Cooper seems to think that we are going to “outrun” climate change by using technologies that exist today, while simultaneously creating new technologies.

Geospatial mapping, assisted by satellites and manned or unmanned aircraft, now enables us to compile detailed information on any spot on Earth and record indicators of its soil, animal life, and flora. This technology’s ongoing advancement will make it continuously easier to identify troubled areas and monitor efforts at protecting and restoring them. (Docksai 49)

There is similar thinking when it comes to oil consumption. While most forecasts are based on a never decreasing demand for oil, the opposite might be true. China for example has began a large move towards more fuel efficient vehicles.

Beijing has little strategic interest in emulating America's addiction to foreign oil. Accordingly, it has pushed consumers toward smaller engines via tax breaks. This is easier to do in an embryonic market where, unlike America, drivers don't feel like they are trading down to less powerful models. (Denning)

The move to become less dependent on oil, foreign or domestic is largely driven by the cost. Oil trades on the global market by way of many different currencies; however, oil is nearly always traded in U.S. dollars. While this is a great thing for the U.S. it poses quite an issue for some countries. There are embedded costs when having to trade in different currencies. Exchange rates are always changing, so it’s dangerous to trade out of one currency to another that might decrease in worth right after the trade “. . . .in 1972 and 1973 OPEC signed two agreements, known as Geneva I and Geneva II, which attempted to price oil in a basket of currencies. The agreements aimed to protect the price of oil against fluctuations in the value of the US dollar against other major currencies” (qtd. in Mileva 385). With more and more countries moving to decrease their dependence on oil – even China, there is a tipping point in oil usage vs. oil production. There is little doubt that oil, coal, and gas supplies are vastly greater than we know of at this point, couple that with the fact that demand is increasing at a non-linear rate; it’s reasonable to assume that we will never run out of oil. Also, one must consider the fact that even to this day oil is still shrouded in mystery. With such wide views as to how long it takes oil to form naturally; coupled with the fact that oil has been produced in labs in relatively short periods of time, nobody can say definitively that oil is not being produced naturally faster than we can use it. Oil has a strong possibility of becoming the first renewable resource.

Works Cited (this post continues below)

Cooper, Mary H. “When will the world run out of oil?” Oil Production in the 21st Century.

8.29 (1998): 675-691. Print.

Denning, Liam. “China's Thirst for Oil Could Come Up Short” Wall Street Journal. 31 May.

2010. Web. 20 July. 2015.

Docksai, Rick. “Futurists Explore the Next Horizon.” The Futurist. 47.6 (2013): 47-52. Print.

Gao Yang, Jin Qiang, and Zhu Guangyou. “Genetic types and distribution of shallow-buried

natural gases” Petroleum Science. 7.3 (2010): 347-354. Print.

Korolev, Yu, and S. Gagarin. “Catagenesis of Humic Coals Inferred from the X-Ray Phase

Analysis and Mathematical Modeling.” Lithology and Mineral Resources. 40.5. (2005):
448-461. Print.

Kosowatz, John. “Hydraulic Fracturing's Greener Tint.” Mechanical Engineering-CIME.

137.6 (2015): 12. Print.

Mileva, Elitza, and Nikolaus Siegfried. “Oil market structure, network effects and the choice of
currency for oil invoicing.” Energy Policy. 44(2012): 385–394. Print.

Pike, Richard. “How much oil is really there? Making correct statistics bring reality to global

planning.” Significance. 5.4 (2008): 149-152. Print.

Trask, Parker D. “Where Does Oil Come From?” The Science News-Letter. 32.870. (1937): 378-

381. Print.

Zhou, Wenwen, Yonghong Li, Yongkui Zhang, Zongbao Zhao. “Energy efficiency evaluation of

lipid production by oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides.” Journal of Thermal Analysis & Calorimetry. Vol. 108.1 (2012): 119-126. Print.

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As it turns out, I might have been on to something. I’ve always questioned the “fossil fuel” argument ever since I was a child, simply because it sounds so corny.

Many years later, I decided to do a little research to see what I could find about how oil is formed. To my surprise -- there was very little information out there. Most of it centered on "what scientists believe" or "what most geologists believe." Nothing is very certain about any of it. On the other hand, you can look up all about the Moon's surface, and everything is stated as fact. I always thought that was a little strange.

Why would oil creation and the science around explaining it be so vague?

Because, I believe that Dr. Willie Soon is correct. "Willie Wei-Hock Soon is a Malaysian astrophysicist and aerospace engineer employed as a part-time externally funded researcher at the Solar and Stellar Physics Division of the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics."

He provides very reliable evidence that oil can be created through abiogenic processes.

Gas, oil and coal are commonly referred to as "fossil fuels". The term is based on the concept that all of these hydrocarbons where formed millions of years ago when prehistoric plants and animals died and were gradually buried by layers of rock. That is, they are supposedly all formed from the compression of biological "fossils" that became buried under ground for millions of years.

Dr. Soon was pointing out that there is considerable evidence that this is not the only way that hydrocarbons can be produced:

• For example, in a 2009 paper in Nature Geoscience, Kolesnikov and colleagues showed that under very high pressures and temperatures, methane gas can be converted into short-chained hydrocarbons https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo591.
• Another example they discussed was the fact that liquid methane and small-chained hydrocarbons are found in Saturn's moon, Titan - see Mastrogiuseppe and colleagues (2019), Nature Astronomy; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-019-0714-2; Hayes (2016). Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-060115-012247.
• Meanwhile, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons have also been found in Titan's atmosphere - see Zhao and colleagues (2018), Nature Astronomy, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-018-0585-y.
• They also mentioned that multiple chlorinated hydrocarbons have been identified on Mars by the Curiosity rover - see Freissinet and colleagues (2015), Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JE004737.
• Finally, several studies have suggested that PAHs (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons) can also be formed in interstellar space (i.e., deep space in between stars). E.g., Dorian S. N. Parker and colleagues (2011), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1113827108.

But what does all of this mean?

From Dr. Soon's perspective, it means we should be careful not to assume all of the hydrocarbons on Earth are "fossil fuels". We do not yet know what percentage of the Earth's hydrocarbons were formed from biological fossils and what percentage were formed from non-biological ("abiogenic") processes.

However, it should be stressed that this does not necessarily mean that our accessible hydrocarbon reserves are limitless. As Dr. Soon pointed out the conditions Kolesnikov and colleagues (2009) showed could produce hydrocarbons abiogenically occur very deep underground - at least 50-100 miles. In contrast, the deepest oil or gas drill so far have only been 6 to 8 miles deep.

Dr. Soon also pointed out that current drills are not able to extract 100% of the oil and gas in the reserves - as the oil or gas is extracted, the pressure required to extract more becomes greater until it eventually becomes impractical to remove (with current technology, including fracking).

So, in terms of practical gas, oil and coal exploration, arguably it does not make much difference how the hydrocarbons in the known reserves were produced. Moreover, most coal, oil and gas companies spend considerable financial resources in the exploration of new reserves. This shows that from an economic perspective, the companies that are most heavily invested in the existing reserves are actively seeking new potential sites to drill.

On the other hand, as Dr. Soon later discussed, the widespread debates over "limited resources" and "renewable energies" are often non-scientific and unrealistic.

This gets back to the argument from Richard Pike. Pike believes that we will never run out of oil -- and it’s for that reason that we will destroy the climate/planet. Pike argues that we will continue to use oil excessively because it will always be available and cheap, unless governments take actions to make it more expensive. Of course that leads to the idea of carbon taxes, and other measures to make energy too expensive for common people to afford.

This is something that I wondered about as well. We don't know at what rate oil is produced. We don't know if oil is produced (in the aggregate) at a rate faster than we can extract it? There are a lot of questions.

Here is a link to the Tucker Carlson interview with Dr. Soon.

If you're wondering about Dr. Willie Soon, take a peek at his Wikipedia page. You'll see that he has been attacked and investigated, because people want to know who's funding his research. Interestingly almost none of the people investigating his funding are claiming that his research is flawed.

What do you think?

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