Are Polls Really Believable?

Polls come out all the time. Trump is up, Kamala is down, it’s all over the place.

Usually the differences can be explained, but sometimes it’s not so easy. Recent polls for North Carolina shows that Trump is ahead, but a democrat is leading in the race for governor.

There are plenty of reasons that this could happen, but how likely are they. For example, let’s assume that the republican candidate for governor is not very well liked, it’s possible that someone could vote for a democrat governor, and a republican presidential candidate — but how realistic is that? It’s hard to say.

Most polls are, “within the margin of error.” The question then becomes, “How many democrat voters are going to vote for Trump?”

That’s why AZ was so sketchy in 2022. The republican state treasurer received more votes than either of the two gubernatorial candidates?

That’s a pretty big difference. Who shows up to the polls for the state treasurer’s race?

Did any polls predicted that outcome? None that I can find. But they might be out there.

What do you think?

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